Do Not Rely on Economic Forecasts

It amazes me how much free space and airtime global media gives to economists and their economic forecasts.

What is particularly amazing is how inaccurate these forecasts are.

In Australia, every quarter, economists attempt to predict the percentage rise or fall in inflation. Even this simple idea cannot be predicted accurately. There are wildly inaccurate predictions.

If economists cannot get this number right, how can they predict global activities over the next 1-5 years, as they pretend to do?

Their predictive attempts are like sports commentators trying to predict the score progression in any match, score by score. It is a nonsense!

My point is this: how much time do you spend reading such forecasts, predictions, guesses? Are you wasting your time? Observe your reactions when you read such forecasts, and decide whether you are gaining enough value for the probably waste of your more valuable time, when you could be reading much more useful material.

Become more conscious and aware of why you choose to read nonsensical predictions.

My guess about why the media publishes the forecasts is that they need something apparently scientific or professional to regularly fill their spaces. The media particularly loves bad news, because bad news sells more newspapers than good news. This is a proven fact.

Choose to do your own thinking.

A BLOG BY CHARLES KOVESS©